![]() This paper develops a Bayesian Network (BN) model to examine the relationships among operational risk (OR) events in the three lines of business with greater losses in the international banking sector. Subsequently, a posterior distribution is estimated to carry out inference on the parameter values. ![]() By construction, Bayesian models incorporate initial or complementary information about parameter values of a sampling distribution through a prior probability distribution, which includes subjective information provided by expert opinions, analyst judgments or specialist beliefs. The Bayesian approach may be an appropriate alternative for operational risk analysis when initial and/or complementary information from qualified consultants is available. These predictions will lead to a more accurate evaluation of potential future losses. For increasing effectiveness in analyzing potential risk exposure, predictive indexes and indicators combining internal and external data may be developed for a more effective operational risk management. External loss event data not only provides insights from the experiences of industry peers, but also allows a more effective identification of potential risk exposure. For example, organizations in the banking and insurance sectors can provide critical insights from self-assessment and scenario modeling from the combination of internal data with external data on loss events that triggers across the industry. Needless to say financial organizations need advanced tools, models, techniques and methodologies that combine internal data with external data across industry. The current challenge is how to manage proactively operational risk in a business environment characterized by sustained volatility. For global markets, the significance of loss events (measured, in some cases, in billions of dollars) showed that the lack of an appropriate operational risk management may affect even major financial institutions. While in 2004 regulators focused on market, credit and liquidity risk, in 2011 attention was mainly placed on the high-profile loss events affecting several major financial institutions, which renewed operational risk management and corporate governance. However, in all cases, the articles will be subjected to the same evaluation process. Its main objective is the dissemination of research related to the above topic areas that generate tools for the study of Ibero-American community and its current economic and administrative context.Įstudios Gerenciales, through the publication of relevant highquality previously unpublished articles subject to a double-blind peer review process, is generally aimed at researchers, students, academics, professionals interested in the most recent research and analyses in economics and management in Ibero-America.Īrticles can be submitted in Spanish, English or Portuguese and, as editorial policy, the journal seeks a balance of articles by authors from different Ibero-American countries or other regions therefore, an issue of the journal may include a maximum of 20% of articles authored by researchers-professors associated with Icesi University. Estudios Gerenciales is the Ibero-American journal of management and economics focused primarily on the thematic areas of organizational management, entrepreneurship, innovation, marketing, accountancy, finance, public administration, quantitative methods, economic development, industrial organization, international trade, economic policy and regional economy.
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